Posts with «language|en-us» label

London’s railway of the future is finally here

London has the oldest underground railway in the world, and on May 24th, it will welcome its newest addition to the family. Crossrail is the realization of a dream first mooted in 1941, but one that would only start being built in 2009. It is one of the biggest infrastructure projects in the western world, arriving several years late and several more billion pounds over budget. But it’s hoped that this gigantic system will spur growth, relieve congestion on its Victorian-era network and remind the world of what Britain can do when it puts its mind to something. No pressure, then.

The London Underground as it exists today was borne out of a historical railway boom, with competing companies building routes to serve the city’s major economic hubs. Its many quirks are a consequence of nearly 200 years of politics, commerce, geography and geology shaping how things work. It comprises eleven lines, 272 stations and 250 miles of track, which is now under the aegis of a dedicated body, Transport for London.

Despite the wealth of transport links, many of the lines were built to serve a city far smaller than its present population. Not to mention that London is the center of gravity for far more than just the people living within its metropolitan area – it dominates much of the southeast of the country. It’s for this reason that Crossrail was given the green light, as both a way to relieve congestion on its tiny, Victorian-era tunnels, and to recognize just how broad London’s influence had become.

Crossrail Ltd.

Crossrail runs from Shenfield, a commuter suburb 35 miles northeast of London in the neighboring county of Essex, via the Great Eastern Main Line. It then runs through the city, connecting to the Great Western Main Line and then on to Reading, a large town 40 miles west of London. When fully running, it is expected to serve 200 million passengers a year, increasing London and the south east’s total rail capacity by around 10 percent in total. Crossrail is primarily an above-ground line, aside from the Central Operating Section (COS); the tunnels that run through London itself.

“It’s hard to fathom how there is space in this city to put in new stations, new infrastructure,” says Olga Konopka, Principal Delivery Engineer at Crossrail. She cited an example of how when the new Crossrail tunnels pass existing Jubilee line tunnels, the gap between them is just two meters (6.5 feet). A fleet of eight 1,000-ton Tunnel Boring Machines (TBMs) were tasked with weaving a new route through some of the most congested soil anywhere in the world. It’s one of the reasons that Crossrail’s birth hasn’t been an easy one – since you’ve got hundreds of years worth of infrastructure that you can’t touch during the construction process.

The TBMs pulled around seven million tonnes of material out of the ground, but Crossrail’s leaders said that almost all of it was re-used. For instance, around three million tonnes of soil was donated to the Royal Society for the Protection of Birds. This was used to construct a new wetland nature reserve at Wallasea Island in neighboring Essex. The rest of the clay soil was used to restore landfill, raise land and, in one instance, help build a golf course.

Luca Marino / Crossrail Ltd.

Some 26 miles of tunnels have been dug below the city, which took between May 2012 and May 2015 to complete. Konopka explained that as well as being “the biggest civil engineering project in Europe,” it also produced the largest tunnels dug for the London underground. The Central Line, for instance, has a diameter of roughly 3.5 meters (around 11.5 feet), while Crossrail tunnels are 6.2 meters (around 20 feet) wide. “Crossrail tunnels have an emergency walkway in them, which is a massive improvement to health and safety from the current infrastructure,” she said.

Konopka explained that there was some art and artistry baked into the system to help things run smoother and smarter. For instance, the gradient of the railway line gently inclines in the tunnel sections approaching a station. That way, a train slows down more efficiently since some of its forward motion is being sapped by the hill it has to climb. The situation is reversed when you pull out of a station, the track sloping almost imperceptibly downward in order to give the train a speedy departure.

It should be clear by now that Crossrail, despite the fact that it is an electric railway running under a city, is not a regular subway. It may feature on the Underground Map, and even has a line name – The Elizabeth line – but it’s not an official part of the underground itself. (Pedants beware: Crossrail denotes the project, the Elizabeth line is the thing you’ll actually be riding.) Because it connects to mainline stations at either end, and uses full-size mainline trains, it is a railway unlike anything else in the UK. In fact, the closest comparator is Paris’ Réseau Express Régional (RER), a series of lines that connect commuter suburbs to the city itself, and then moves people between stops in the city – a railway that acts like a subway when it’s in the middle of a city.

Crossrail Ltd.

One thing that was often repeated was the fact that Crossrail was a project designed to marry the very old and the very new into one seamless whole. “Farringdon was the first part of the Underground,” said Konopka, “we need[ed] to somehow marry up the old and the new, and that’s been the biggest struggle.” And making a 21st century railway run in perfect harmony with a pair of railways built in the Victorian era is one of the reasons that Crossrail’s deadline slipped from 2018 to 2022. (COVID-19, of course, was the other.)

“Conceptually, the project is brilliant,” says Colin Brown, Technical Director of the Crossrail project, but “it joins up to railways that were built in Victorian times, and that’s where your problem starts,” he said. “The Great Western was built by [Legendary engineering pioneer Isembard Kingdom] Brunel,” he explained, “and the Great Eastern wasn’t far behind it.” “The technology on those two railways has evolved over many years,” he said “but hasn’t been changed since the ‘60s or ‘70s.”

Britain’s railways, including the two main lines that Crossrail connects, use an antiquated, analog signaling system to communicate hazard warnings to drivers. This system, after a series of fatal train disasters in the ‘90s, was updated slightly to improve safety, but remains a 20th century tool. The digital replacement is ETCS (European Train Control System), which brings digital technology into the railways and promises a much safer network overall. While Crossrail was built with ETCS as standard, it also had to play nice with its analog predecessors.

Subway systems, however, use an entirely different signaling system called Communications Based Train Control (CTBC). Given the density of trains using tunnels under cities, and the need for accurate location data, CBTC is key to run services with small gaps between each train. Crossrail may not be a subway, but it will run 24 trains per hour inside the tunnels, and so needs to behave like one while it’s underground. Not to mention that CBTC is the only system that can also run the more subway-esque functions, like platform screen doors and tunnel vent interfaces.

Brown explained his dismay at the patchwork of systems and why it wouldn’t have been simpler just to pay to standardize the technology. For a variety of reasons, it wasn’t deemed feasible, and so engineers have spent years finding ways to make the old and new, analog and digital, above-ground and below-ground systems work as one cohesive whole. “You’ve [never had] a mainline train morphing into a metro train and then morphing back out again,” said Brown – at least not in the UK.

CBTC is also predominantly automatic, with drivers acting in a more supervisory role while the trains are underground.This automatic system will even operate the train when it needs to reorient itself ready for its next leg of the journey. “When it gets to Paddington,” said Pradeep Vasudev, Head of System Integration, “the driver pushes a button and then he walks from one cab to the other [at the other end of the train] while the train drives itself.” This system is also sufficiently smart that it can help find ways for the timetable to recover when a train breaks down or an incident causes a delay elsewhere on the line.

And because the system is now so much more complex, and broad, means that the timetabling systems are paramount. “For the first time, a train in Bristol [120 miles west of London] breaking down could affect a train on the Great Eastern [Main Line] in Shenfield [Crossrail’s Eastern Terminus, 35 miles northeast of London],” said Vasudev. And, of course, on the software engineering side, all of this information, and calculation, needs to be boiled down to a series of simple commands that a staffer can use to recover the service when things go awry.

One problem that Crossrail was also forced to address was the privatization of Britain’s railways in the early ‘90s. Rather than a centrally-planned and operated railway, the then Government decided to franchise each region’s railway operator. Consequently the Crossrail project had to engage with a variety of operators running different lines and find some happy harmony. “We have MTR driving, we have RFLI who owns the central section of the railway, we have London Underground, who operates a lot of the stations, we have Network Rail on either side, when we go into Heathrow, we’ve got Heathrow Express which is a different operator,” said Vasudev.

“Some of that, you’ll never get away from the fact that an operator is key, regardless of how much information the system can give you,” said Vasudev. Lee Price is one such operator, a former personal trainer and badminton coach who joined the company in 2016. Price’s story is common among new Crossrail drivers, coming from outside the train driving fraternity rather than within. This was because the project opted not to poach drivers from other underground or mainline services to avoid denting staffing levels elsewhere. (Not to mention that it helps bring the economic benefits of the system to more people, creating training and job opportunities.)

Andrew Parish / Crossrail Ltd.

Price is now a veteran of the service, and trains other drivers, although he too isn’t yet rated for the entire route. Since it’s being used as three separate railways, it will only be after the central section is opened that drivers will be running back and forth on a regular basis.

Unlike a mainline train, or a subway, the role shifts depending on where along the route the train is. “On the East and the West, you’ll be physically driving [the train],” he said, while in the COS, “in theory, the train is automatic, but we’re there for more of a safety [role].” “Although you’re doing less, you still have to remain alert,” he added, especially in the dark tunnels that require drivers to “keep their awareness up.”

Crossrail opens to the public on May 24th, with services running between Paddington and Abbey Wood. On the day, the various arms of the service will be rebranded from TFL Rail – a placeholder name – to the Elizabeth line. 12 trains per hour will run along the line, starting at 6:30am and ending at 11:00pm each weekday, with a fuller service ramping up over time. One of the new mainline stations, Bond Street, has yet to open thanks to service delays.

Work on the project is not likely to be complete for a long while yet, but if the railway does help boost London’s fortunes, it won’t be long before eyes look forward to the next project. Crossrail 2 is a proposed line running from Broxbourne and Cheshunt in London’s northeast down to Chessington, southwest of the city. It is designed to join up routes north and south of the city, and relieve congestion on those journeys as much as Crossrail is expected to do from east to west.

Unfortunately, COVID-19 and government funding cuts have put the project on ice for the foreseeable future. But one thing that is clear, is that the expertise, the lessons learned from Crossrail’s slower-than-expected birth, are currently embedded in the team that’s just finishing their work. To let all of that experience wither on the vine would seem like a criminal waste of resources. Then again, there will be voices asking why London deserves yet another expansion of its public transport network when other major cities have nothing. As always, politics, economics, geography and geology will determine the future of the most famous tube in the world.

Corsair's first gaming laptop puts Elgato Stream Deck tech in its touch bar

PC accessory manufacturer Corsair has unveiled its first laptop, the 16-inch Voyager AMD Advantage Edition, that's unabashedly designed for gamers and streamers. It's an all-AMD affair, packing both Ryzen 6000-series processors and an AMD Radeon RX 6800M GPU. It appears to be some of the first fruit from its 2019 purchase of gaming PC manufacturer Origin. 

The highlight feature is a 10-key LCD macro bar above the keyboard that's powered by Elgato, allowing streamers to customize controls using Stream Deck software. At the same time, you don't have a MacBook Pro touch bar situation where the function keys have been replaced, as it has those, too. And because of the laptop's unusual clamshell design, you can access the macro bar even when the laptop is closed.

Corsair

You'll be able to customize the keys to different live streaming controls like switching scenes, adjusting audio and loading videos or photos. That way, you could presumably control streaming from your laptop, and the keys could also be used with video conferencing apps like Zoom. 

The 16-inch 2,560 x 1,600 240Hz display (16:10) looks ideal for gaming with a good blend of resolution and speed. Other features aimed at gamers and streamers include a full-sized keyboard with Cherry MX ultra-low profile mechanical switches (in conjunction with membrane for half-height keys), and a 1080p30 webcam with a physical privacy shutter. 

Corsair

Corsair is offering two versions with either a Ryzen 7 6800HS or Ryzen 9 6900HS CPU, along with a Radeon RX 6800M GPU for both. Both versions are well-equipped for gaming or creative work, with 32GB of DDR5 RAM and a 1TB PCIe 4.0 M.2 NVMe SSD on the Ryzen 7 version, and 64GB GB of DDR RAM and a 2TB PCIe 4.0 M.2 NVMe SSD on the Ryzen 9 model. Both include a pair of Thunderbolt 3-enabled USB 4.0 ports, a USB 3.2 Gen2 Type-C port and a USB 3.2 Gen1 Type-A port, along with an SDXC 7.0 card reader, 3.5mm combo audio jack, WiFi 6E and Bluetooth 5.2.

The design is certainly different from other gaming laptops, but it looks sleek with a 19.9mm tapered design and thin display section. It weighs in at 2.4kg (5.3 pounds), a bit heavier than the 16-inch HP Omen 16 gaming laptop (5.03 pounds). The bottom bezel is fairly chunky, likely to accommodate the extra space required for the touch bar. 

With the Voyager AMD Advantage Edition, Corsair appears to be taking on Razer in the enthusiast gaming segment. Corsair's press release shows $2,700 and $3,000 price tags for the Ryzen 7 and Ryzen 9 models, respectively, though the company also said that "availability and pricing will be announced at a later date." 

AMD's Ryzen 7000 desktop chips are coming this fall with 5nm Zen 4 cores

AMD's upcoming Ryzen 7000 chips will mark another major milestone for the company: they'll be the first desktop processors running 5 nanometer cores. During her Computex keynote presentation today, AMD CEO Lisa Su confirmed that Ryzen 7000 chips will launch this fall. Under the hood, they'll feature dual 5nm Zen 4 cores, as well as a redesigned 6nm I/O core (which includes RDNA2 graphics, DDR5 and PCIe 5.0 controllers and a low-power architecture). Earlier this month, the company teased its plans for high-end "Dragon Range" Ryzen 7000 laptop chips, which are expected to launch in 2023.

Since this is just a Computex glimpse, AMD isn't giving us many other details about the Ryzen 7000 yet. The company says it will offer a 15 percent performance jump in Cinebench's single-threaded benchmark compared to the Ryzen 5950X. Still, it'd be more interesting to hear about multi-threaded performance, especially given the progress Intel has made with its 12th-gen CPUs. You can expect 1MB of L2 cache per core, as well as maximum boost speeds beyond 5GHz and better hardware acceleration for AI tasks.

AMD is also debuting Socket AM5 motherboards alongside its new flagship processor. The company is moving towards a 1718-pin LGA socket, but it will still support AM4 coolers. That's a big deal if you've already invested a ton into your cooling setup. The new motherboards will offer up to 24 channels of PCIe 5.0 split across storage and graphics, up to 14 USB SuperSpeed ports running at 20 Gbps, and up to 4 HDMI 2.1 and DisplayPort 2 ports. You'll find them in three different flavors: B650 for mainstream systems, X650 for enthusiasts who want PCIe 5.0 for storage and graphics and X650 Extreme for the most demanding folks.

Given that Intel still won't have a 7nm desktop chip until next year (barring any additional delays), AMD seems poised to once again take the performance lead for another generation. But given just how well Intel's hybrid process for its 12th-gen chips has worked out, it'll be interesting to see how it plans to respond. If anything, it sure is nice to see genuine competition in the CPU space again.

While Ryzen 7000 will be AMD's main focus for the rest of the year, the company is also throwing a bone to mainstream laptops in the fourth quarter with its upcoming 6nm "Mendocino" CPUs. They'll sport four 6nm Zen 2 cores, as well as RDNA 2 graphics, making them ideal for systems priced between $399 and $699. Sure, that's not much to get excited about, but even basic machines like Lenovo's Ideapad 1 deserve decent performance. And for many office drones, it could mean having work-issued machines that finally don't stink.

Xiaomi and Leica to launch a co-branded phone in July

After some earlier rumors, today Xiaomi finally confirmed its "long-term strategic cooperation" with Leica, and that they've been co-developing a flagship smartphone ahead of its July 2022 launch. This will be the German camera firm's latest mobile imaging collaboration after Sharp, Huawei and Panasonic. 

Xiaomi hasn't shared much else about this upcoming product, but our money's on a "Xiaomi 13" label and Qualcomm's brand new Snapdragon 8+ Gen 1 processor, along with some classic imaging aesthetics and filters from Leica's side. In the press release, CEO Lei Jun added that "this cooperation will provide a strong boost to Xiaomi's imaging strategy."

Xiaomi isn't the first Chinese phone maker to leverage the photography know-how from a renowned camera brand. In late 2020, Vivo followed the footsteps of Sony plus Nokia and joined forces with Zeiss. More recently, Oppo (and OnePlus) started launching handsets jointly developed with Hasselblad.

WhatsApp will end support for iOS 10 and iOS 11 on October 24th

WhatsApp plans to end support for iOS 10 and 11. A new notification spotted by WABetaInfo prompts iPhone users to install the latest version of Apple’s mobile operating system supported by their device to continue using the app after October 24th. A support article from WhatsApp notes the company recommends iOS 12 as a baseline for iPhone owners. If you’re still holding on to an iPhone 5s, iPhone 6 or iPhone 6s, you’ll be able to continue using WhatsApp on your device, but iPhone 5 and 5c owners will need to consider upgrading to a new handset.

With the iPhone 5 and iPhone 5c nearly a decade old at this point, chances are the move won’t affect too many people. When you do see an iPhone 5 out in the wild, it’s usually a hand-me-down. Still, millions of people around the world depend on WhatsApp to communicate with their friends and family, and there are bound to be at least a few iPhone 5 and iPhone 5c owners among that group.

Hyundai will invest $5 billion toward US manufacturing and innovation

Hyundai will allocate an additional $5 billion toward investments in the US, the automaker announced on Sunday. The funds will support the company’s work in electric vehicles, robotics, air taxis, self-driving cars and artificial intelligence. The announcement follows the recent news that Hyundai plans to build a $5.54 billion electric vehicle plant in Georgia. With that facility included, the automaker intends to invest $10 billion in the US by 2025.

Some of the money will go toward supporting Boston Dynamics, which Hyundai acquired in 2021. The automaker said it is committed to growing the robotics firm by expanding its manufacturing capabilities and product lineup. The company will also support Motional, its Boston-based self-driving unit, by working to make its driverless technology safer and more accessible to customers in the US and other parts of the world.

“The move supports carbon neutrality goals with new technologies and contributes to manufacturing in the US,” Hyundai said in a statement. According to the automaker, its new Georgia plant will produce 300,000 EVs per year once production starts sometime in the first half of 2025. Construction on the facility will begin in early 2023.

‘Stalker 2’ is reportedly back in development after Ukraine invasion forced studio to relocate

GSC Game World has reportedly resumed work on Stalker 2: Heart of Chornobyl after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine forced the studio to pause development. On March 2nd, the Kyiv-based developer announced it was putting the game on hold while it worked to help its employees and their families “survive” the conflict. According to reports from Czech media, the studio relocated its staff to Prague that same month.

Now it would appear the game is back on track. Responding to a question from a member of Stalker 2’sDiscord community asking if development had resumed, a GSC Game World employee said, “it continues,” in a message spotted by Polish gaming outlet GRYOnline. We’ve reached out to the studio for confirmation.

Following a delay at the start of the year, GSC Game World said it would release Stalker 2 on December 8th. The announcement came before Russia’s invasion of Ukraine sidelined the studio. Since the war began, the company also subtly changed the game's name. Its subtitle now reads “Heart of Chornobyl” instead of “Chernobyl,” with the former reflecting the local Ukrainian spelling of the site of the 1986 nuclear disaster.

YouTube removed 70,000 videos in Ukraine-related enforcement action

Since Russia invaded Ukraine in late February, YouTube has taken down more than 70,000 videos to date related to the conflict, The Guardian reported on Sunday. The company told The Guardian it removed many of the videos for breaking its major violent events policy, which prohibits content creators from denying or trivializing events like the invasion.

YouTube did not breakdown the enforcement action but noted that it suspended approximately 9,000 channels in the sweep, including one tied to pro-Kremlin journalist Vladimir Solovyov. Some of the videos YouTube took down broke the company’s guidelines by referring to the invasion as a “liberation mission.”

“We have a major violent events policy and that applies to things like denial of major violent events: everything from the Holocaust to Sandy Hook. And of course, what’s happening in Ukraine is a major violent event,” Neal Mohan, YouTube’s chief product officer, told The Guardian. “And so we’ve used that policy to take unprecedented action.”

Partly resulting from its actions, YouTube has seen a significant increase in the number of people in Ukraine, Poland and Russia consuming “authoritative” content on the conflict. In Ukraine, for instance, news content on the invasion has generated more than 40 million views. “The first and probably most paramount responsibility is making sure that people who are looking for information about this event can get accurate, high-quality, credible information on YouTube,” Mohan told The Guardian.

The move underscores the critical role services like YouTube play in preventing misinformation from spreading online. In Russia alone, YouTube has more than 90 million users, making it the single largest video-sharing platform in the country. The company’s actions against state-sponsored networks like RT and Sputnik had a dramatic impact on the ability of those organizations to disseminate the Kremlin’s message.

Hitting the Books: How winning the lottery is a lot like being re-struck by lightning

A wise man once said, "never tell me the odds" but whether you're calculating the chances of successfully navigating an asteroid field (3,720:1), shouting "Shazam" and having it work twice in a row (9 million:1), or winning the state lottery (42 million:1 in California), probabilities influence outcomes in our daily lives for events large and small alike. But for the widespread role they play in our lives, your average person is usually just pretty ok with accurately calculating them. As we see in the excerpt below from James C. Zimring's latest title, Partial Truths: How Fractions Distort Our Thinking, our expectations regarding the likelihood of an event occurring can shift, depending on how the question is posed and which fraction is focused upon.

Columbia University Press

Excerpted from Partial Truths: How Fractions Distort Our Thinking by James C. Zimring, published by Columbia Business School Publishing. Copyright (c) 2022 James C. Zimring. Used by arrangement with the Publisher. All rights reserved.


Mistaking the Likely for the Seemingly Impossible: Misjudging the Numerator

The more unlikely an event seems, the more it draws our attention when it does occur and the more compelled we feel to explain why it happened. This just makes good sense. If the world is not behaving according to the rules we understand, perhaps we misunderstand the rules. Our attention should be drawn to unlikely occurrences because new knowledge comes from our attempts to understand contradictions.

Sometimes what seems to be impossible is actually highly probable. A famous example of this is found with playing the lottery (i.e., the lottery fallacy). It is well understood that it is incredibly unlikely that any particular person will win the lottery. For example, the chance of any one ticket winning the Powerball lottery (the particular lottery analyzed in this chapter) is 1/292,000,000. This explains why so much attention is paid to the winners. Where did they buy their ticket? Did they see a fortune teller before buying their ticket, or do they have a history of showing psychic abilities? Do they have any special rituals they carry out before buying a ticket? It is a natural tendency to try to explain how such an unlikely event could have occurred. If we can identify a reason, then perhaps understanding it will help us win the lottery, too.

The lottery fallacy is not restricted to good things happening. Explanations also are sought to explain bad things. Some people are struck by lightning more than once, which seems just too unlikely to accept as random chance. There must be some explanation. Inevitably, it is speculated that the person may have some weird mutant trait that makes them attract electricity, or they carry certain metals on their person or have titanium prosthetics in their body. Perhaps they have been cursed by a mystical force or God has forsaken them.

The lottery fallacy can be understood as a form of mistaking one probability for another, or to continue with our theme from part 1, to mistake one fraction for another. One can express the odds of winning the lottery as the fraction (1/292,000,000), in which the numerator is the single number combination that wins and the denominator is all possible number combinations. The fallacy arises because we tend to notice only the one person with the one ticket who won the lottery. This is not the only person playing the lottery, however, and it is not the only ticket. How many tickets are purchased for any given drawing? The exact number changes, because more tickets are sold when the jackpot is higher; however, a typical drawing includes about 300 million tickets sold. Of course, some of the tickets sold must be duplicates, given that only 292 million combinations are possible. Moreover, if every possible combination were being purchased, then someone would win every drawing. In reality, about 50 percent of the drawings have a winner; thus, we can infer that, on average, 146 million different number combinations are purchased.

Of course, the news does not give us a list of all the people who did not win. Can you imagine the same headline every week, “299,999,999 People Failed to Win the Lottery, Again!” (names listed online at www.thisweekslosers.com). No, the news only tells us that there was a winner, and sometimes who the winner was. When we ask ourselves, “What are the odds of that person winning?” we are asking the wrong question and referring to the wrong fraction. The odds of that particular person winning are 1/292,000,000. By chance alone, that person should win the lottery once every 2,807,692 years that they consistently play (assuming two drawings per week). What we should be asking is “What are the odds of any person winning?”

In probability, the chances of either one thing or another thing happening are the sum of the individual probabilities. So, assuming no duplicate tickets, if only a single person were playing the lottery, then the odds of having a winner are 1/292,000,000. If two people are playing, the odds of having a winner are 2/292,000,000. If 1,000 people are playing, then the odds are 1,000/292,000,000. Once we consider that 146 million different number combinations are purchased, the top of the fraction (numerator) becomes incredibly large, and the odds that someone will win are quite high. When we marvel at the fact that someone has won the lottery, we mistake the real fraction (146,000,000/292,000,000) for the fraction (1/292,000,000) — that is, we are misjudging the numerator. What seems like an incredibly improbable event is actually quite likely. The human tendency to make this mistake is related to the availability heuristic, as described in chapter 2. Only the winner is “available” to our minds, and not all the many people who did not win.

Similarly, the odds of twice being struck by lightning over the course of one’s life are one in nine million. Because 7.9 billion people live on Earth, it is probable that 833 people will be hit by lightning twice in their lives (at least). As with the lottery example, our attention is drawn only to those who are struck by lightning. We fail to consider how many people never get struck. Just as it is unlikely that any one particular person will win the Powerball lottery, it is highly unlikely that no one will win the lottery after a few drawings, just given the number of people playing. Likewise, it is very unlikely that any one person will be twice hit by lightning, but it is even more unlikely that no one will, given the number of people in the world.

So, when we puzzle over such amazing things as someone winning the lottery or being twice struck by lightning, we actually are trying to explain why a highly probable thing happened, which really requires no explanation at all. The rules of the world are working exactly as we understand them, but we are mistaking the highly likely for the virtually impossible.

Boeing’s Starliner carried a ‘Kerbal Space Program’ character to the ISS

After two-and-a-half years of delays, Boeing’s Starliner capsule successfully docked with the International Space Station. It was an important milestone for a company that has, at least in the popular imagination, struggled to catch up with SpaceX. So it’s fitting how Boeing decided it would celebrate a successful mission.

The seven-member Exp 67 crew gathers for a welcome ceremony in front of the hatch where the @BoeingSpace#Starliner docked on Friday evening. pic.twitter.com/AGfkAjWMbI

— International Space Station (@Space_Station) May 21, 2022

When the crew of the ISS opened the hatch to Starliner, they found a surprise inside the spacecraft. Floating next to Orbital Flight Test-2’s seated test dummy was a plush toy representing Jebediah Kerman, one of four original “Kerbonauts” featured in Kerbal Space Program. Jeb, as he’s better known by the KSP community, served as the flight’s zero-g indicator. Russian cosmonaut Yuri Gagarin took a small doll with him on the first-ever human spaceflight, and ever since it has become a tradition for most space crews to carry plush toys with them to make it easy to see when they've entered a microgravity environment.

If you’ve ever played Kerbal Space Program, you have a sense of why it was so fitting Boeing decided to send Jeb to space. In KSP, designing spacecraft that will carry your Kerbonauts to orbit and beyond is no easy task. Often your initial designs will fall and crash as they struggle to fly free of Kerbin’s gravity. But you go back to the drawing board and tweak your designs until you find one that works. In a way, that’s exactly what Boeing’s engineers had to do after Starliner’s first test flight in 2019 failed due to a software issue, and its second one was delayed following an unexpected valve problem.

Boeing kept Jeb’s presence on OFT-2 secret until the spacecraft docked with the ISS. A spokesperson for the company told collectSPACE that Starliner’s engineering team chose the mascot in part because of the science, technology, engineering and math lessons KSP has to teach players. Jeb will spend the next few days with the crew of the ISS before they place him back in the spacecraft for its return trip to Earth.